USD/JPY: Talk of plenty of bids but I prefer ‘sell rally’ play

There was a lot of talk in the interbank market about the very large bids at 101.35/40 and then last night more talk of big bids 101.50/70. Understandably the spot market took this as a signal to get long again. I don’t agree.

  • Risk-aversion is only one headline away;
  • Precious metals are telling me that the USD is due for a bearish phase;
  • USD/JPY positioning is still quite long;
  • Recent price-action favours range-trading if anything.

Overall I prefer to sell rallies towards the top of recent ranges 102.50/70 in expectation of a move to 100.75 at least.

  1. Evening, or Morning as it is over your way Sean, I’m happy to be in agreement with you, it is always so funny how quickly opinions change! The world was ending on Sunday night, and it’s all gravy this evening, but all it takes is a tired soldier or a misfire or stray bullet and today’s gains could be distant memories

    I’ve been long Jpy since Thursday last, they were looking good this time last night, but not so much now, but I’m holding, if I’m stopped, I’m stopped

    short usdjpy at 101.80 sl 102.9 tp1 100.8 tp2 100
    short gbpjpy at 169.75 sl 171.65 tp1 168.3 tp2 167.5
    short eurjpy at 140.05 sl 141.35 tp1 138.5 tp2 137.7

  2. hi sean. i sold the aud jpy at 92. 70…and i got stopped out today morning on another small short but im selling that again as close as possible to 92.00 (todays high). aiming for a re test and hopefully a break of 90.00.

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