Flows and Orders/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Still plenty of buying interest below 81.50

USD/JPY has looked susceptible at times to a clean-out of long positions but so far the bulls are holding their own. The interbank market is still reporting plentiful buying interest near 81.50 and just below. Many are expecting a surge of Yen buying as the election day looms but then again many had assumed that the AUD would fall after a rate cut. Sticking with the recent trend in USD/JPY seems like the logical play so buying dips is still the preferred trade.

  1. so from what I gather, right now in your mind is :

    EUR up, Yen cross up, Aussie (may start rise), GBP up,

    am I correct? haha

  2. The aussie strength has really surprised everyone i can think of sean.If most people are surprised whose calling the shots?..what is the reason behind this?i can accept my loss but has this happened to you before in your 26 years of experience?
    is this a flaw i should get rid of as a trader..this search for a narrative to every move?..but trading without a belief or opinion would be trading blind in a herd some would say!!..
    its been a day of great learning..

    1. > Rahul, You have hit it on the nail when you ask ‘do I need a narrative for every move’. Why do we need a reason for everything, and is it even possible for anyone to understand the reasons for everything? By insisting on a narrative the trader gets emotionally attached to his idea of what the market should do next. I find that you do much better by following the lead of the market, never try to argue with the market. Since I got rid of the attachment to my ideas and opinions as far as the market is concerned, my trading has improved dramatically. In the final analysis, the trader’s goal should be to be profitable. Analysts need to be seen to be right, traders need to make money.

  3. Hi Rahul, if my stop-loss weren’t quite so close then I’d be immediately cutting my AUD short trade. If it can’t go down on all this negative news then it must be going up! I’m just unwilling to buy this close to the bearish trendline so I will wait for it to break before covering (and maybe even turning bullish). I think the mkt might be trying to tell us something?

  4. But what about the fiscal cliff sean.Its the elephant in the room and its the most intense catalyst out there in my opinion. Brinksmanship is the name of the game in the white house right now and if theres anything thats close to a sure bet in forex its political ineptitude.
    If i had the financial wherewithal i would be selling into these rallies, buying $ that is.
    This is just my opinion ofcourse. I still feel you should ignore techincal clues for now and hold your short till this event passes over.

  5. Possibly Rahul, but I’ve always been a trader who obeys his gut-feel on what the important levels are. It hasn’t always served me well and I do remember one painful occasion getting stopped out of a EUR/JPY short trade just before it collapsed but I have my levels and generally stick to them. As for ‘fiscal cliff’, total load of political nonsense imho. It’s just a matter of what level of ‘being broke’ the US and its creditors are happy with

  6. No single person, or even a large group of persons can have all the knowledge of all the factors that move prices. But the price itself contains ALL the information out there that has any bearing on that price. The Price at any moment is the sum total of ALL the information that the market participants as a whole have, TOGETHER with their reaction to that information!! One persons opinion is like a drop in an ocean of information contained in the price. Therefore, it is pointless to argue about this and that – just see what the market is telling you and act accordingly.

    1. > zenfxtrader, I welcome you!
      It is beautifully told, but it is called “glorification” or “phrase-mongering”, otherwise, many words about anything. To argue certainly it isn’t enough sense, but it shares opinion absolutely another, it not dispute. It is simply to look at the price ineffectively, in it there is no sense of work in the market. Successes to you!

  7. Good morning to all,

    ZenFX, what about information that some have but that they are waiting for a better moment to use (for ex. insider waiting for a dip)?

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