FXWW News/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Should stay heavy in risk-off environment

With equity markets falling quite heavily, the natural reaction in the FX market is for risk pairs like AUD/JPY and GBP/CHF to take a bit of a beating. With this in mind, I prefer the sell-rally play in USD/JPY with levels around 97.60 looking like ideal medium-term entry levels.

  1. Thing is daily momentum is overbought and now looking to go to the sell side for EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while USD/JPY momentum is oversold and now looking tog o up.

    I think the USD will dominate now. But can see that USD-JPY might have to test 95.90-95.80 level before going higher toward 100.

  2. Hi Sean,

    In my opinion, the global macro trend for USD/JPY is to upward direction that driven by the weakening of the Asian economic block and the strengthening of the American economic block. As previously quoted, I long USD/JPY at 94.20 with stop loss 91.00 to target 117.00/118.00. The pair already moved to upward to the level of 96.80 for (96.80-94.20) 260 PIPs floating profit and it is forecasted to continue to move to upward to follow the upward macro trend. The quarterly lowest band 91.00 already aligned to 92.00 and is expected to re-align to 93.00 in ten days which will strengthen the stop loss. The alignment and re-alignment of the quarterly lowest band overtime will allow the adjustment of the stop loss to risk free level as well as to protected profit level and to hold the trade to target. This is the model of global macro trend trading strategy I practiced. Although USD/JPY may be under pressure, this pair will not be pressured down to break the quarterly lowest band. Any idea?

  3. EUR/JPY

    I am still holding my long position on EUR/JPY at 129.90 with stop loss 125.00 to target 165.00, the upward global macro trend. The long position was under pressure down to 125.00 and to pressure me to delete the stop loss as the pair under pressure down to 124.70 for over (129.90-124.70) 520 PIPs and re-entered the stop loss at 125.00 back.

    The quarterly lowest band of the EUR/JPY was aligned to upward to 125.00 from 121.00 but tested down to 124.70.

    The EUR/JPY sharply moved to upward up to the level of 128.70 to reduce my floating lost to (129.90-128.70) 120 PIPs.

    I predict for EUR/JPY to continue to move to upward direction to break the level of 133.00 shortly to enable the stop loss adjusted to risk free.

    This is macro trend trading model I practiced. Any idea or suggestion please.

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