FXWW News/JPY crosses/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Should be re-named Jekyll and Hyde

Overall I think we go lower in this pair and we will probably see levels back towards 93.00 in coming weeks, but it won’t be in a straight line.

  • The crosses are giving mixed messages; AUD/JPY is trying to form a strong technical base near 89.50 but EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY look soft.
  • Fundamentals seem to be USD/JPY bullish (Fed tapering, BOJ expansion) but the market is long.
  • Plenty more Jekyll and Hyde trading ahead for USD/JPY.
  1. GM Sean, I’m of the same view.
    ►the easy money from the FOMC event has already been made, it should get quite choppy in the next bit – FOMC trade is showing first signs of diminishing return
    ►some official back pedalling last night
    ► with all the USD supportive data last night I was expecting EURUSD to crack that floor with ease, but it held…the market seems stretched after 3 days of selling
    ►So, after being long a basket of USD around the FOMC daily close, I decided to close off all trades last night for green pips. We’re reach some major lines on the daily EURUSD (200) and USDJPY (100) and I don’t expect them to cut thru like a knife…so I’m retreating to sidelines for a while

  2. Sounds like an excellent move Chngster, frees you up to avail of any intraday spikes as well. That’s one big problem I have when I’m nursing a biggish position, I then miss plenty of good risk-reward trades like EUR/JPY sell yesterday or AUD/JPY buy yesterday? Could’ve made 200 pips there with relatively little risk. That’s really what I should be concentrating on

  3. Hi Sean,

    I am still holding my long position on USDJPY at 94.20 SL 91.00 to target 117.00 of the macro trend. The long position will be managed with multiple entries and exits at the measured the highest and lowest rates of quarterly, semi-annual and annual currency bands of the USDJPY. USDJPY up and down for 300 PIPs to 450 PIPs floating profit and at the same time the quarterly lowest band aligned to upward. I expect the lowest quarterly band to align to the level of 93.00 by this week to enable me to adjust the stop loss up to the level of 92.00/92.50 to lower the risk.Overtime, as market already permit, I will adjust the stop loss to break even for risk free and should protected profit to be justified and rationale by the the measured performance then to be managed at protected profit and to hold to target.

    This macro trend trading model seems to be less stressed and frustrated when compared to all high frequency trading with loss and profit and overtime to be the looser. What do you think?.

  4. That has been my experience also Johanes, that the longer term strategies are more likely to be profitable. It’s less gambling and more skill imho. You seem to be building nicely and strategy makes lot of sense on all levels, so good luck with it. Little bit of luck always helps 🙂

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