USD/JPY: Risk-reward favours long-term top-pickers
Picking levels in USD/JPY is will nigh impossible and it really is a matter of watching the market very closely for signs of accelerations and turns. I still cannot get away from the view that the big bull move from sub-80 on the back of the BOJ is running out of steam. That doesn’t mean that we don’t see levels above 110, in fact it could happen today for all I know, but I like the risk reward in trying to pick a medium-term top somewhere up here looking for a nasty dip back below 100.
That doesn’t help us much today unfortunately! There is a short-term top near 108.30, which is also around the 61.8% retracement of the 110/105.20 move, so selling near there with a tightish stop above 108.40 does certainly make sense. Support levels don’t look overly strong until 107.40/50 but I’m sure the dip-buying brigade will emerge in force at those levels.