There’s little doubt in my mind that the risk-reward ratio is heavily in favour of the bears here, for all the reasons I outlined last week (primarily market positioning). The hourly chart has also turned bearish and although it may stall at the 38.2% retracement level, I’d much prefer to be entering the market near 79.90. I’m still running a short trade here (which you can follow in the members section) and I’m hoping to increase the position size near that level.
The economic calendar brings GDP and industrial production to begin the week as well as a speech by BOF chief’s Shirakawa, but the big influence here will be brought by external factors and market sentiment.