FXWW News/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY outlook August 19th: Conflicting forces at play but bear-strategy favoured

  • Big players remain very long of USD/JPY;
  • Crosses are mixed with AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY looking bullish but EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY running into quite heavy selling interest;
  • Higher US yields should be favouring USD/JPY bulls but the fact that it can’t maintain rallies, despite the Fed/BoJ policies, is a damning bearish indicator;
  • Big option plays should ensure tight-ish range trading over coming weeks;
  • Positioning, price-action, and Chinese selling, suggests to me that selling rallies is the better strategy here.
  1. Im with you on this one Sean (although i usually agree with you 99.9% of the time), i think bear is the way to go, but everying seems to be on hold for this pair waiting for Japans trade balance and import/export numbers. i think when the market opens the Nikkei will be a bit higher, but will go back down taking usd/jpy with it, i guess ill have to wait and see. Sean you think we might see a dip at mid 95 some time this week, although its to early to call, cause my gut is telling me 95-96 seems practical for this week, let me know what you think!

  2. Morning Abdullah, I’m thinking 9650/9850 on the edges and play close to there as possible. Prefer sell-rally like you but with US yields rising, the dip-buyers will also have strong case. Classic range trading set-up

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