USD/JPY: Looking to build medium-term shorts into 50% retracement level at 111.65

The market was certainly taken by surprise by the BOJ’s additional easing but a closer look at the fine print may suggest that this is not such a big deal (robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak).

I will try fading the rally into the medium-term technical resistance level at 111.65 (50% 147.50/75.50). This is a very big level and not to be ignored.

  1. Good question Coty, and certainly a very subjective matter. I really should have said taking a m/t trade into major tech resistance levels. Short-term moves for me are 50/300 pips ish. M/t moves I would expect to be anything up to 15 big figs and could take months. So thinking about it for the first time in 28 years 🙂 My timeframes are more ‘range frames’ rather than specific time frames. Hope that makes sense, it does to an old spot cable trader 🙂

  2. I got long on usd-jpy at 108.9 last night, and exit out 109.40. Then, go to bed and go to city for a meeting. It is a pity to see 111.40.

    This spike higher killed out huge short positions, create a bloody pool for Xmas!

    Next upside target level for u-jpy would be 113 plus, which is top line of this up channel. Then, story come to BoJ intervened level 115 during 2002-2003. Level 115 was neckline of H&S. BOJ spent trillions defend this level. So, it is a long-term equilibrium level on yen history. BOJ will get their lost money back.

    Level 118, 124 will be hit if no USA office complaint. But, when ?

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