Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Longs getting very nervous; safer to sell intraday rallies

Despite the best efforts of the BOJ, the market is simply overly long of USD/JPY still. It has risen 10 big figures on verbal intervention and now that something actually has happened, it starts to drift off. That’s FX market logic for you.

I think that selling any rallies back to 89.50 looks like a logical play but keep positions smaller than usual as it will remain whippy. My target is 87.80/00 area and if we get a bounce out of there then I will buy USD/CHF (that’s FX and Irish logic mixed 🙂 ).

  1. I am looking to buy it anyway as I think we are seeing a big move out of CHF and I think the USD might benefitmore than the EUR. Any dips caused by USD/JPY are likely to be temporary so that’s what I’m looking for.

  2. can we translate similar logic to the eur/chf.cause i had the same trade on for that pair.would you consider the euro to be stronger than the usd relatively?..

  3. I think EUR/USD is range bound for next few weeks maybe even months. I was also long EUR/CHF but got out of 80% at 12485. If EUR/USD ranges 128/135 then most of EUR/CHF gains will come from USD/CHF, and that’s sort of what I’m playing for. Of course I will also buy dips in the cross as well

  4. I welcome, Sean!
    There is DNT 1.35-1.30 in euro, say that its terms big, somewhere till March. Therefore I from yesterday’s purchase took away part of euro and moved Trailing Stop. I consider sale on the way from 1.3440 and on the way by 1.35.
    Successes to you Sean!

  5. Hi Sean, I buy GBP/NZD at 1.900….looking at previous charts, my assumptions was that it cannot go any further down and will move back to at least 1.92. I know u hate NZD and now I can better understand why? It has been continuously falling since I buy at 1.900 and fell by almost 150 pips or more since then. I am really confused what to do ,I.e. either get rid of it straight away or wait.
    Plz advise. I will appreciate it mate. Regards, Pete

  6. Hi Pete, I’ve lost a lot of money trading the NZD so I may not be the right person to ask. I would try and hang in there for a bit. At some stage you may just have to take the hit, and make sure its not a huge one, but when this pair turns it will be at 2.10 very quickly imho. Probably trade a 186/190 s/t range, reducing position near top and re-loading on dips? That’s what I would try.

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