FXWW News/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: I’m staying cautiously bearish

  • Latest rebound stalling at a 61.8% rebound level (see chart);
  • Taper already written into market pricing;
  • Retail and professional markets remain quite long of this pair.

I know logic says that we should be long USD/JPY but risk-reward at moment is in favour of the bears. Keep stops tight either side; if long keep stops below 98.50 and if short, keep stops above 99.70.

  1. Morning Sean, to be honest im quite worried (fine im over exaggerating a tad bit) regards to tomorrows announcement! Sean, i know your position on the matter, but lets say hypothetically if Tapering does not occur this month, how low will we go? Personally I have decided as hard as it is for me to say this, i’m not going to trade until after the annoucment, I’ll watch from a safe distance and plan future moves.

  2. Clever move Abdullah, sit back and wait n see what happens. I will also keep my risk levels very low through the event, way too risky and no point in guessing what will happen

  3. Near term USD does seem a little fragile.
    Longer term, I can’t get excited about the yen. One chap in this article suggests that even if Japan turned back on all it’s nuke power plants it would still be running a trade deficit:
    http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/japan-faces-record-long-trade-deficit-with-few-signs-it-can-reverse-trend
    Not sure if his analysis is correct, but hey, looks like yen selling pressures aren’t going away. Of course it’s always a problem finding another currency that looks worth buying. As of today NZD, GBP look the pick of the crop to me.

  4. Hi, Sean! I started selling kiwi, from 0.8242 and to 0.8400, work from sales. Stop 0.8450, target 0.70. This one of my long-term transactions. Also in the sale looks pound. Target pound district 1.5140. Good luck to you, Sean!

  5. Hi sean, i have a theory regarding the markets. Its somewhat similar to the t theory followed by marty schwartz but i didnt know that before and neither do i know it clearly now.
    Markets have equal time phases with consolidation and trending and we have come to the end of the consolidation phase on the EUR/USD. USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
    FOr ex, the usd jpy. if you draw a zone from 99-98.50 and look back for the last 6 months. it has oscilated EXACTLY onto either side with a decreasing amplitude. and it has come almost to a standstill exactly there. no fancy math just take a calc and divide the extremes of each swing by two. and now at the end of this phase we have arrived at the point of value decided by the markets and v shud enter this new phase WITH NO BIAS.the market is going to accept a fresh critical catalyst and trend in the coming phase no matter WHAT. so im going to hold back for a time. till the end of the day maybe. because whatever happens all these pairs are going to travel atleast 500-600 pips to their next mean value. (usd jpy =98.50/99.00 eur/usd=1.3460/1.350…etc.)
    best of luck to everyone.dont blow out

  6. U did say short the $/J at 99.40 but it didn’t reach it…
    Maybe one should b 10 pips off up/or dwn to b conservative and not miss a trade? Like jump in at 99.20/25?

    Thank u
    R

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *