Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: If you like contrarian trade ideas

A friend of mine who’s a very technical, very long-term trader thinks this USD/JPY move is basically fuelled by false expectations and that it will start to run out of steam quite soon probably around 83.00ish. He then expects to see fresh new lows below 75.00 before a possible medium-term base can begin to form.

I do love a good contrarian trade but I’m not sure about this particular idea just yet.

Have a great rest-of-day and I’ll catch you tomorrow.

  1. I think he’s dead right with false expectations. I’ve just been reading something from JPMorgan’s Tohru Sasaki and he seems to think this whole Abe / LDP stuff will eventually blow over and the yen strength will return (he is always bullish yen though I think).
    I don’t think the Japanese government will sit around and allow then yen to strengthen much though. Lows below 75 might be overly optimistic, but hey markets can surprise.

  2. Yen weak is in real fundy cases, due to Japan loss a lot of business in China or oversea Chinese. Japan export may be not good now. So, Japan GDP expectation will be lower in next 6 to 12 months. Japanese debt issue may be focus again, huge debt, worst than USA. so, Japan may face bankrupted. When market start to re-assess Japan on fundamental base, then, big shift in yen will happen, and last for while. 83.85 will hit. Then, 85 or 95 levels ?

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