Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Got my bids lined up at 93.50

Its not that I’m bullish really, just that I think we are in swing trading markets and as it’s already fallen 100 pips today, we will probably get an intraday reversal at some stage. Plus as I mentioned earlier, 93.40 was the first level the market halted at after the April BOJ decision.

All the current Yen strength is due to profit-taking from macro funds and as such, we will eventually reach an equilibrium point.

  1. None yet Samir. I will buy a small amount first, if my levels hold then I add to position generally with 60/80 pip stop-loss and 150/200 pip t/p. I’ll be flexible though depending on mkt conditions

  2. Hi Sean,

    Is it the 93.50 is the estimated equilibrium?.

    When USD/JPY hit the level of 102.00, both IMF and OECD stated that the USD/JPY is near equilibrium (the term introduced by Soros).

    In my opinion, the 75.00/75.50 is the “disequlibrium” or “far from equilibrium” the term introduced by Soros. I estimated that the 117.00/118.00 is the “equilibrium”. Thus, currently we trade at central currency band (currency band theory introduced by Krugman).

    I long USD/JPY at 94.20 is the estimated central currency band and stop loss at 91.00 is the estimated quarterly lower time series currency band. It is almost similar to my long position on EUR/JPY where I estimated that the quarterly lower time series currency band is 125.00 (the pair pressured down to 125.49, near the stop loss at 125.00).

    I appreciate for your opinion and advise.

  3. Very logical Johanes and prob not far from truth in long term but that doesn’t mean that we don’t see 85 again! Nothing surprises me in these mkts. Long term I’m overall bearish USD altho prob not against the Yen, more so AUD and GBP

  4. Hi Sean,

    This Asian morning session the USD/JPY moved to 95.83 (my long at 94.20) and the lowest quarterly band also aligned to 92.00 from the previous 91.00 (my stop loss 91.00).

    I am still optimistic for USD/JPY to move to upward direction to follow my prediction of the up-trending macro-trend to visit the 117.00 or more.

    Do you think my position is make sense?

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