FXWW News/JPY crosses/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Favour a 98.75/99.90 range

The fundamental outlook is bullish given potential tapering from the Fed and expansionist BOJ policy, but remember that much of this is already written into the market. The big end of town is structurally long and as we saw a few weeks ago, if they start to dump positions across all asset classes, then USD/JPY will fall regardless.

Playing the swings looks like the better short-term strategy whilst buying-big-dips looks like the best medium-term play. There are some risk events today with the Tankan report followed later by Chinese PMI and I think that support should now be found near prior highs at 98.75 and the topside target is a Fibo at 99.90 (see chart).

  1. Hi Sean,

    I am still holding my long position on USDJPY at 94.20 with stop loss 91.00 to target 117.00 and more. USDJPY is currently at 99.40 for 520 PIPs floating profit. The lowest quarterly band is expected to align to 93.00 by this week which will allow me to adjust my stop loss up to 92.00 to lower the assumed risk.

    I am looking for the pair to break 103.00 (for 700 PIP floating profit up to 1000 PIPs) at which level I will analyze to whether the pair may be pressured before the pair to resume to move to upward direction. Should the annually currency band to confirm the pressure at the level of 103.00 then I will book for profit and wait to re-enter at the lowest quarterly band and to trade the USDJPY at multiple entries and exits.

    This is the global macro trading model I practiced. Any suggestion please?.

  2. Hi Johanes, my suggestion is that you keep doing exactly what you are doing as it makes a huge amount of sense 🙂 It’s an excellent trading plan for a macro position

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *