The fundamental outlook is bullish given potential tapering from the Fed and expansionist BOJ policy, but remember that much of this is already written into the market. The big end of town is structurally long and as we saw a few weeks ago, if they start to dump positions across all asset classes, then USD/JPY will fall regardless.

Playing the swings looks like the better short-term strategy whilst buying-big-dips looks like the best medium-term play. There are some risk events today with the Tankan report followed later by Chinese PMI and I think that support should now be found near prior highs at 98.75 and the topside target is a Fibo at 99.90 (see chart).