USD/JPY: Every analyst seems to be super bullish

There’s a good reason that banks never give analysts any trading limits! Their job is to get publicity for their employers and generally sound as if they know what they are talking about. You will also usually find that the analysts tend to follow each other’s calls; less chance of them looking bad that way.

Currently it seems to be a matter of analysts trying to out-do each other with how high USD/JPY is headed (somewhere between 105/120 is common-place). I liken them to the Channel Ten weather team; great at telling you what today’s weather was like but stuff-all use at forecasting tomorrow’s weather 🙂

I’m firmly of the view that if all analysts are saying the same thing then the market will soon turn in the other direction so I’m staying in USD/JPY rally-selling mode, especially when technical levels hold firm. [Edit: The broader market probably has some way to go before it get’s saturated with long USD/JPY positions so if you fancy being long, I’d do so soon].

  1. Serga, we might even see 105 before it turns sharply lower. The overall mkt still isn’t super long so there is certainly still short-term scope but I’m a rally seller rather than trying to ride a small wave higher.

  2. Why not Tom, really good risk-reward ratio so definitely worth a shot. Obviously risk sentiment would need to take a hit but that’s always a distinct possibility.

  3. I was bullish but I am neutral now. I am looking at 100 for any momentum, or a failure for a small short. But with US yields above 2.5% its hard to be all-out bearish.

  4. Hi Sean,

    I am still holding my long on USDJPY at 94.20. The pair visited the level of 99.80 by today for (99.80-94.20) 560 PIPs floating profit.

    Quarterly and semi-annual currency band analysis are indicating for the pair to move to upward direction to follow her global macro trend.

    The performance of the pair at the level of 103.00 will be closely watched and analyzed by using band’s correlation approach to decide to whether the pair to be closed for profit and re-entered after pressured (multiple entries and exits).

    Global macro trend is my most interesting to follow.

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