USD/CAD: Consolidation phase soon to end
With all of the movement elsewhere, I find it hard to imagine that USD/CAD will continue to trade sideways for any significant length of time. I’m still firmly of the opinion that the next big move will be lower, back towards 1.02, but there are plenty of bulls out there who see this pair trading up to 1.15. I think we will soon find out. One slight worry for me are IMM reports that the market is slightly long of CAD but historically I’ve found the IMM and spot positioning in the CAD to be unreliable, so I’m cautiously ignoring this data.
For me, if we break back above 1.1050/1.1100 then I will stop trying to sell rallies and re-evaluate.