USD feels toppy, and sooner or later I’ll be right!

  • USD/JPY has been surprisingly leading the way in recent days after the rejection of 110.00. Technical support is quite strong around 106.75 but if we start spending any length of time below there, the bulls will get worried.
  • AUD/USD has again bounced strongly off .8650 with the help of decent buying from Asian Central Banks. The market is short of this pair.
  • EUR/USD really smells like a turn could be in the air. The market has been very bearish and is now presumably very short. I think we are more likely to see a 1.30 test rather than another 1.25 test.

I think the recent USD rally has been overdone but be wary, my recent timing has been very poor indeed.

  1. I have been bearish the AUD for a few weeks and am now neutral looking for a bounce and agree the one way traffic in USD looks set for some headwinds.

    Significant downside in risk assets igniting a return to macro credit concerns is looking increasingly likely. That could lead to a return to QE (infinity) and a bounce in commodities.

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