Time to be short USD
- USD/JPY is the lead pair here. Prices had already risen by over 30% from 76.00 and yet the market was trying to buy dips towards 100! Once again the market has gotten itself bullish at the top and I expect more downside pain here.
- USD/CHF: Following the USD/JPY lead and the Swiss Franc has been spared the mass exodus of asset managers that has befallen the AUD etc.
- Cable: Bullish technical set-up and the GBP is heavily oversold on a long-term basis against many other majors. I’d expect cable to find a medium term base now near 1.52 and start eyeing moves towards 1.60 at least.
- The EUR might struggle on some of the crosses like EUR/JPY once heavy long-liquidation emerges, but overall is headed higher I feel (although with less momentum that the cable for instance). I’d suggest a 1.2900/50 base that should hold even if the cross selling accelerates and the target is somewhere around 1.37ish.
- AUD/USD is getting smashed with some massive flows in the crosses. I still think somewhere around 92 cents is achievable but that dip will be a long term buying opportunity as the USD has little going for it.