Teflon AUD does it again

The AUD and the local economy is unaffected by what’s happening elsewhere and just keeps on trudging along. The chances of a December rate cut have receded again and the AUD is edging higher.

The unemployment rate actually fell by 0.1% to 5.4%.

  1. I reckon all the factors are aligned bullish for the AUD at this moment. We should see a break of 1.05 this week. I am long 1.0425, sl at 1.0390. No specific target, depends on how price action evolves.

  2. You can call me nuts, but my mode of operation for next month or so is to sell any ralliy in AUD/USD. I am fully aware of current grind higher and totally cool with visit to 1.06, but have feeling that drop down (if it happens will be swift and sweet). Main idea is that recent strength on AUD/USD was somewhat slow motion, that means you can trade your position to make sure short will not explode into your face in any major way.

  3. I have been bullish $A because of the win win situation (more financial crisis = more reserve currency debasement means higher nominal commodity prices means better AUD bid versus no more financial crisis means reflation is happening and higher commodity prices means higher AUD) but just in the last day or two, I sense there are some major limits to the marginal efficiency of new debt stimulus, resulting in significant asset price falls that might mean more financial crisis is beyond the capacity for reserve currency debasement to affect. We are coming to a potential sell rallies market in the AUD

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