Seems to be large difference of opinion, retail vs professional markets

I certainly don’t talk to everyone in the professional market but I do see pretty much everything that 4 big players write on a daily basis, and they seem to be unflinchingly bullish on EUR/USD, cable and AUD/USD. On the other hand, the retail market (myself included) seems to be mainly bearish on the three mentioned pairs.

So why the large difference of opinion? I sense that it’s got a lot to do with flows but it wouldn’t be the first time that big players bought at the wrong level and got burnt! Probably also fair to say that it wouldn’t be the first time that the retail market got it wrong!

I think we are due for a short period of consolidation to be then followed by a 500/700 pip move one way or the other, but I’m not so confident anymore that the next move is down.

  1. Morning Maji, a contact at a bank posted that info yesterday so best wait until we can get it reconfirmed as order books can change totally in space of a few hours. Usually the Sovereigns, corporates and macro players leave their orders firm whereas HFs, retail etc change them every 5 mins!

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