RBA: Market expectations

It seems that the market has already factored in a 25bps rate cut so in this event, we would likely see the AUD/USD fall back towards support at 1.0330 and if there are large stops below 1.0320, they will probably also be targeted.

12 out of 19 experts polled by Reuters suggested that there will be no cut today, and that the RBA will signal its intention to cut next month instead. In this event, I’d expect short covering to kick in and push the AUD/USD back above 1.0400.

The two outliers are a 50bps rate cut or a no-cut with hawkish statement. Either of these would move the market by around 100pips initially.

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