Trade Ideas

Range trading the majors and looking for volatility in the crosses

  • EUR/GBP: Market is short and bearish of EUR but we could see a nasty squeeze heading into the UK election. I prefer to look for dip-buying opportunities and will add aggressively if it starts breaking higher, purely as a short/medium-term (2-3 weeks) play.
  • AUD/NZD: Looks set to break lower. Play from short side whilst 1.0220 caps. Add on break below 1.00 if momentum favourable. Again, this is only a medium-term play (3-6 weeks). Long-term players can buy any big dips as fundamentals have this pair grossly oversold.
  • Cable: Looks like 1.44/1.50 to me and we are closer to upper end of this range so I have a modest bearish bias in the short term.
  • EUR/USD: Looks like 1.05/1.10 to me with a bearish fundamental bias but over-positioning suggests it will struggle to find fresh bearish momentum.
  • AUD/USD: .75/.78 looks like a safe bet here.
  • USD/JPY: Too hard!
  • NZD/USD: .74/.77 with bullish bias given my AUD/NZD view.