Quick look at EUR/USD and USD/JPY

  • USD/JPY is still holding up well despite huge offers at 80.00 and trailing stops building below 79.50. The hedge fund market is aggressively buying but it remains to be seen whether they have the patience or firepower to take it higher. The Yen crosses will be most impacted by AUD/JPY around the time of the CPI number. The easiest trade opportunity seems to be, wait for market to take out all the sell orders above 80.00 in USD/JPY and when everyone is full and bloated, sell for the inevitable dip.
  • EUR/USD will be mainly impacted later today by developments in the German Bundestag when ECB Chief Mario Draghi speaks before the House. In the meantime I expect tight range trading to prevail between 1.2950/1.3020.Β 

  1. Sean, you were absolutely correct y’day. Congratulations! They did push and test the 1.3 barrier. I thought last week it would be able to break out of this narrow range, but no, it’s still stuck…..

  2. Morning Sean, shorted EUR/USD at 1.2984 just now, looking to make a quick 30 pips. Then I can actually concentrate on work, my real income producing day job.

  3. Good afternoon Sean!
    The second transaction in game, is USD/CAD, nevertheless waited 0.9975 and sold pair, the purpose as well as wrote earlier 0.9600 or about that. The first transaction of GBP/USD sale from 1.6177, corrected the purpose a little, now it is 1.5857. Sean, I now consider EUR/USD purchases from 1.2915 or about that, on purpose on break 1.3183-1.3200 and fixing is higher than this level, what you think on this matter? Euro purchases, it certainly medium-term prospect, my usual trading strategy medium-term. Thanks Sean, always I appreciate your thoughts and ideas. Successes to you!

  4. Serga, what does the medium-term mean for you? How many days, or weeks? But in the short-term, if I understand correctly, you still expect it to go lower to or around 2915? Why do you expect it to go to 3183-3200?
    Thanks! Good trading to all!

    1. > I welcome Szabi!
      Medium-term trade for me can borrow as some days, and some weeks, everything depends on dynamics of movement, in different tools of the market of loudspeaker different. There is no exact time when I will fix the transaction, there is only a purpose and daily monitoring of the market. It is so more convenient to me to trade, because I don’t look for an entrance in the market every day, I only supervise open positions. Such strategy of trade has the features:
      1. By means of the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis I find the tool where will be trade is made.
      2. The volume of funds for this tool (as a rule it is 1 standard prize, happen exceptions sometimes) is allocated
      3. When the decision is made, orders are exposed, I never enter at the market price (only the postponed warrants), never I enter in all volume, that is, 1 prize shares on three parts (on the average 3 entrances)
      4. The decision on a stop is accepted at once, but stop loss is put on 200 points and, it is far (happens certainly less, everything depends on tool volatility)
      5. When a position in the market, every day I will see off her that it means: I move Trailing Stop, I can reduce volume or add volume and so on.
      So my strategy of trade looks.

    2. > Szabi, now why I think of euro growth.
      1. On graphics month, the price entered into the triangle punched in May. I think that buyers of euro won’t miss an initiative and month will close in it. Certainly, it will be visible at the end of the month.
      2. My opinion that now sellers of euro more than buyers. At least I hear it from daily communication, I always try to trade against the general thinking, against crowd, so to speak.
      3. I think that behind the levels specified by me there are stops and them there much. The market goes usually there where money lies.
      4. Fundamentally I see that crisis in EZ ceases, fears become less.
      5. I look cross-countries of euro and there I observe the turn moments. I think that the capitals come back to euro, as an example from AUD.
      Is and still some points, but the big book then will turn out, you read Lev Tolstoy “War and peace”? Very big book πŸ™‚
      Successes to you in trade!

  5. Good morning Sean and all,

    Regarding EURUSD, my recommendation is to short the pair at or above its current levels with targets 1.290 and below.

    The “Rajoy sell-off” seems to have started. Big buyers of EURUSD are out of the way now, waiting for the official spanish bailout request. Due to their absence, we fell yesterday below 1.30 again. The market now wants an official request and will continue to short EURUSD and spanish bonds until this happens. This bearishness will continue now and start to be more accute with some possible bounces based on the economic releases and technical support. The market is ready to break below 1.28 if no action is taken by Mr Rajoy. Therefore we should sell EURUSD until the request comes. Today, we will probably go test the very important trend line support that comes around 1.2890/1.29. So double opportunity: short now, and buy there.

    I don’t believe that 1.2915/1.2890 will hold, we are set to go lower. Once we break this trend line resistance, 1.24x will be even a possibility…

  6. Serga, thanks for sharing your strategy and reasoning! It seems you will be able to fill your buy orders. And, no, I haven’t read The War and Peace, yet. πŸ™‚ I wonder how that book helps in currency trading.
    But here it is a “War of the traders” πŸ™‚
    Long vs. short
    Iridium, thanks to you too for your sharing. However, I sense some confusion here: “1.2890/1.29. So double opportunity: short now, and buy there.
    I don’t believe that 1.2915/1.2890 will hold, we are set to go lower” Why are you saying buy at 2890/29, when you yourself don’t expect that level to hold?
    Thanks to all! Have a profitable trading!

  7. Just talking to some sponsors for the site and then I’ll be able to put someone on late-ish London/NY shift. That’s problem with start-up mode, not enough hands!!

  8. Morning Sean. Hardly slept to stay awake for the FOMC statement and linked volatility. Re the site: if your old team (You, Gerry, Jamie) could get together minus FXDD, that would be a dream team!

  9. Morning Pandu, the FOMC was a waste of time, in fact 90% of trading time is wasted. If I could just figure out an alarm clock which only goes off 10 mins before mkt gets busy πŸ™‚

  10. The war of the traders continues, 24 hrs later eur/usd is 15 pips lower….pathetic….
    It didn’t break that level that Iridium forecast, but it was quite close. On the other hand, Serga could start build his long positions. I have a mildly bullish view, but honestly I’m rather sick and tired of this momentum-less market. Cheers to all, have a profitable trading day!

  11. Sean, spoken like a trading veteran! I have just started learning golf to while the hours away, but unfortunately the best time for playing (after 5 pm in summer) is also when London action starts. :-(.
    By the way, I’ve just gone long EU, EJ and have +AU from yesterday. As a matter of policy I don’t trade the GBP and the UJ only very rarely.

  12. Good morning all,

    Szabi to answer you, may be I didn’t express myself very clearly: yesterday, and overall the EURUSD is now a short opportunity imho and any rally must be sold. Since 1.289/1.2915 is an area of very important resistance, and since the sentiment was not yet very bearish yesterday, I did not expect it to break immediately from first test. I don’t expect it to break today either since we did not test it yesterday, that is why it is a buy opportunity in my view for some 20-50 pips rebound. However, I am pretty sure we will break this barrier in the short term (a matter of days) and revisit the low 1.2815, and possibly go even lower. As I said, time has run out for Mr Rajoy.
    Good luck.

  13. Btw this morning EURUSD is bullish and is looking to hit 1.30 again. Probably the 2-year extension for Greece is making everybody happy.

  14. Iridium, thanks for the clarification! I agree, I’m mildly bullish on eur-usd now. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rajoy asking for the money soon. If he doesn’t, then you will turn out to be right! I believe there will be two huge Spanish auctions next week, they will be quite important too.

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