AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/Flows and Orders/GBP crosses/USD/JPY

Professional market positioning overview: EUR shorts on increase again

I collate this data from 3 of the biggest prime brokers and one leading investment bank. In general, positioning across all 4 seems to be very consistent:

  • The biggest move has been back into short EUR positioning and this is the largest open position amongst professional players:
  • JPY shorts have been markedly reduced, by over 50% in the last 4 days, but prior positioning was at very extreme levels meaning that the market is still short (but probably more comfortable):
  • CHF shorts remain significant and are gradually increasing every week:
  • USD, GBP and CAD positioning levels are virtually square:
  • AUD market has flipped from small short to small long:
  1. Hi Sean,
    I missed your webinar last week.The one on position builiding on fxstreet.Is it available on their archives?..cause i cant find it.

  2. Good morning Sean and everybody,

    Today a long analysis! My recommendations:

    – Best: Short the EURUSD at 1.3080, SL 1.3115, targets 1.2950, 1.290 and below.
    – Very risky: Short the EURSUD in between 1.3012 (50% retrace) and 1.3020 (previous peak), SL 1.3035, targets 1.2950, 1.290 and below.
    – Very risky: Buy or Sell the breakout of the Asian session range (1.2955-1.2970) for 20-30 pips profit.

    Yesterday, the market rebounded after another test of 1.288x. It went above the master trend line support and failed to break the 38.2% retrace and 200 MA on 4H chart at around 1.2985. As for the breakout that occured on Monday on low volume, the same can be said about this bullish rebound: it happened on low volume and therefore it should be considered with hightened caution. The technicals this morning are clearly bullish: rebound on resistance (trend line and horizontal), a clear bullish engulfing candle on a daily time frame, and a close above the minor downtrend resistance line (blue dotted line on graph) and a golden cross on the daily charts. However, the fundamental picture is bearish: Spain is still dragging its feet to request a bailout, and the last economic data has not been positive at all. Spanish bonds are moving very slowly higher. Today, the release of the Spanish government budget balance might have some effects on the markets, especially if it is strongly negative. Also, some talks about Greece being on the edge of new elections due to a failure of its ruling coalition is another bearish (very bearish) event waiting to unfold on the markets. The US markets return today from two days off, and might demonstrate bullishness purely to convince themselves that this storm is nothing. In summary, the technicals are bullish, the fundamentals are bearish, and we think this is a bull trap. This is a dangerous market to trade. The best trade here is to short the EURUSD if we get to 1.3080 today, but again there is little momentum in the market and this seems unlikely. As yesterday, since Asia has been consolidating, the breakout of the asian session range is still a possible play for some 20-30 pips gain.

    http://www.chifbaw.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/eurusd311012lo.gif

    Good luck!

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