Plenty of big data releases today, Wednesday October 22nd

  • Australian CPI is expected to increase at a rate of 0.5% QoQ. The AUD/USD is consolidating in a 50 pip range around .8800 and I remain of the view that a bullish break is more likely. AUD/JPY is also stuck in neutral after some bullish/bearish events in recent days.
  • Bank of England minutes from the October 9 meeting should ensure some volatility in the GBP during early European trade. Positioning is very neutral in the GBP according to prime brokerage reports so it looks ripe for a move (in either direction) prior to Christmas. I maintain my bullish bias (especially against the EUR) but as always with the pound, timing is key.
  • US CPI is expected to stay unchanged at 1.7% YoY and is unlikely to move the market.
  • The Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy report are unlikely to hold any surprises. There may be a slight upgrade in short-term growth and inflation prospects but not enough to excite the market.

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