AUD,NZD/FXWW News/JPY crosses/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas

NZD/JPY: Failure at 84.00 opens way for deeper pullback

Modest up-trend still in control but we could see a pullback towards 81.00 after resistance levels at 84.00 held firm again (see chart).

With NZD/USD showing a potential topping formation and with USD/JPY resistance confirmed at 100.50, selling rallies in the cross certainly seems like the path of least resistance.

  1. Wow, what has happened??? I could not believe you writing about nzd/jpy…. But jokes aside, inability of aud/nzd to mount any serious rally makes nzd/usd is an interesting candidate on the short side indeed. I am a bit cautious about yen crosses, but short nzd is definetely an interesting theme. How was London? Anything exciting, apart from good beer and shity weather?

  2. Also if this nzd toppy behaviour happened to be structural, and you conviction on gbp is right, than gbp/nzd could be an interesting play over next year. I have not looked on it for almost 6 month, will try to revisit.

  3. hi sean.
    iv been a nzd bear from quite some time now. even though it doesnt seem to make sense to me. its central bank has made it quite clear that the next move is up in rates. and ausnzd has begun to show bottoming signs( acc to me). so i really dont know why it seems to be acting this way. but technically i keep getting signs of weakness and during such times i prefer technicals over fundamentals. coz no matter how good u r you can always view things with a subjective distortion . the negative carry makes things hard though and emphasize timing. im selling large rallies with quick exits but waiting for a breakout to the downside to execute larger positions. unless a clear catalyst comes along.

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