AUD,NZD/FXWW News/JPY crosses/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas

NZD still losing ground against the JPY and the AUD

This morning’s trade data

(New Zealand (NZD) Imports (AUG): $4.52B, Expected: $4.30B, Previous: $4.62B
New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance (AUG) (m/m): $-1,191M, Expected: $-743M, Previous: $-774M
New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance (AUG) (y/y): $-2.06B, Expected: $-1.62B, Previous: $-1.69B

and a long-NZD market are conspiring to squeeze some positions especially on the crosses.

  • NZD/JPY has started retracing and we could see prices back towards a 38.2% retracement, and previous daily highs, near 80.40 (see chart). I favour buying a bounce off this level.
  • AUD/NZD looks like it might try to post a double-bottom at 1.12 so bears should be cautious.

 

  1. Hi sean, how do you see nzd fundamentally?. i had considered it to be among the stronger ones considering that it didnt really have much potential to ease rates coz of tis housing market and the next move for rates would have been up. Do you think this is just an easing of a market caught too long under risk off conditions? or maybe we could see levels below 0.8000 again?
    im short at 0.8340 and i plan to hold it till risk picks up again.which i doubt will happen until the debt cieling fiasco is out of the way
    thanks

  2. Hi Rahul, as you know me and the Kiwi don’t always agree 🙂 But for now, agree with what you say, the NZD is fundamentally strong with increasing demand out of China but is overbought in short-term. Longer-term prefer to buy dips in NZD/USD but we may see this present dip continue for few sessions yet. Not sure on levels, sorry

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