AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/Flows and Orders/USD/JPY

Month-end flows will drive markets today and tomorrow

Like I mentioned earlier today, most of the market is focussing on expected heavy end-of-month flows from the big institutional asset managers who will be rebalancing after big moves on stock and debt markets worldwide.

Most expect these flows to be USD-negative but the AUD is also expected to come in for some heavy selling. Quite a few hedge funds are already positioned short AUD/JPY to benefit from these flows so if they don’t materialise then we could see a sharp short-covering rally.

For now at least, this is what’s driving movements in the market.

  1. Means :
    – EU/GU up
    – ECHF/UCHF (swiss safe heaven overdone and weak is back again)
    – AU/AJ down

    Something like that ?

  2. hmmm is this just a state of the market or me not understanding what I am reading..

    This post states there is a chance the AU will be low (based on the selling statement)..

    but this post;
    AUD/USD: Short-term resistance levels looming

    indicates there is a resistance point in the .96 range and it is currently at .9665.

    The month end idea of the sell of has the potential to break through the resistance line and drive it lower, if this is the case would you expect it to bounce back from this to the resistance point and then head towards a new resistance point as per what the other blog indicated..

    ok waffle over!

    Cheers

    S.

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