Market now pricing in 60% chance of rate cut in February

That’s two months ahead of the event so you can’t tell me that the statement was anything other than ‘maintaining easing bias’.

That means that the only explanation for the post-RBA AUD rally is that the market was overly short. What would have happened had they not eased! The old saying goes that a currency that goes up on bad news is bound to keep going higher! (I hope it’s wrong this time!).

  1. frankly speaking, I don’t see any reason for short AUD before RBA.

    market already priced in 25 bps cut, so unless RBA cut more, the short hand need to cover because this risk event is done.

  2. Apologies Mike completely forgot to update the order boards in the members but have done so now. EUR/USD corporate sell orders 13080/90 and trailing stops below 13020 is all I’m hearing at moment.

  3. Good morning Sean,
    Rate cut in February? That’s bullish! Buy Buy Buy AUDUSD 🙂 Just kidding, but more seriously, the fact that AUDUSD did not fall here suggests that the big longs want to stay in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1.05 today to start the year end rally in this currency pair 😉
    I would certainly avoid shorting today.

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