AUD,NZD/Flows and Orders/USD/JPY

Market anticipating large end-of-month flows tomorrow

Most of this turnover is likely to happen early in tomorrow’s NY session, when institutional asset managers rebalance after big moves this month. The market gossip has been that USD/JPY and AUD/USD will be the big movers, with selling expected to be heavy in both. No doubt that’s why AUD/JPY has been heavy this week with speculators getting short in anticipation of these flows. If they don’t eventuate, it could be a nasty sell-rumour-buy-fact play!

  1. Dumb question inbound..

    ” The market gossip has been that USD/JPY and AUD/USD will be the big movers, with selling expected to be heavy in both.”

    when you say selling expected to be heavy in both.. specific for the AUD/USD – do you mean selling of the USD pushing the AUD up?

  2. Hi Steven, no such thing as a dumb question as I’m currently experiencing in the world of IT and websites 🙂 When we say selling in a particular ccy pair, it always means selling of the first cyy mentioned. So here, selling in USD/JPY means selling USD and buying Yen. Selling in AUD/USD means selling AUD and buying USD.

    1. Hi Sean,

      If those flows do eventuate, what sort of flows would you expect on EUR/USD ? I opened a small short last night (probably would have been better on the crosses but there we go) on the hope that a lot of the USD selling is related to EOM repositioning and that some of this selling might start to backtrack next week. Hopefully, 1.30 keeps a lid on EUR/USD until then.

      Cheers, Peter

  3. Sean, Very interesting. I will surely put that contrarian play on my watch list. We could see a major short squeeze or at least a late morning (EST) rebound after short term capitulation once selling dries up. The same if selling does not materialize. .. will look to longs.

  4. Sean,it is very difficult to anticipate these sort of moves. We have seen for the past hour, a sudden spike up and now down in a straight line
    EUR/AUD 100 pips in an hour.not sure whats going on.
    USD/CHF support is holding at 96. imho, if 96 breaks it will go down quick else back up to 98. looks like it is eager to move down more than up.
    EUR/CHF is a buy if it goes to 124
    I missed the intraday long AUD/JPY at 97. bugger that. a good 80 pips.

  5. Hi Peter, typical choppy EUR/USD mkt will probably stop shorts out above 130 and then stop longs out on downside. Sorry no great feel at all apart from best left alone. Sometimes its best to take a small loss and start over, if you are unsure about a trade. Prob not a good idea to try and trade your way out by building a position, esp if yu aren’t overly committed or convinced of yur view. Hope that makes sense

  6. Thanks for letting me know about this new website. It’s great to have access to your market commentary again. I still remember your splendid cable call last year 🙂

    For USD/JPY I was eyeing 99.70 as a bear target since last week. At the moment it looks like it’s not out of the question. AUD/USD still looks like has room to fall once this rally peters out. Daily BB bottom still points south and next support is near 0.94 and 0.9360.

  7. That you Susanna? Good to hear from you again. Yeah agree, USD/JPY looks to have scope for nasty downside clean-out. I still like the overall USD higher so any big dips are buying opportunities still imho. Also agree on AUD/USD; think we see 92 cents ish and will probably top out somewhere 9850ish on a stretch?

  8. Yes Sean, it is me, Susanna. I realise now it’s not a new website but the link in your email looked unfamiliar. Anyway I’m looking forward to reading your posts again, so I will bookmark your site.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *