AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/FXWW News/USD/JPY

Levels to watch in afternoon trade

I’m still of the same view, the EUR has done a lot of its work already and is overbought on the crosses whilst the Yen should gain across the board as position unwinding picks up pace.

  • AUD/USD: Play .9150/.9350 range with bullish bias as it will eventually break higher.
  • USD/JPY: Sell any rallies as long liquidation to pick up pace; volatile 96.50/99.50 range favoured here with bearish bias.
  • EUR/USD: Recovery feels overdone but dips will be well supported. I’m still totally neutral here but happy to look for extreme swings at 1.29 or 1.33.
  • EUR/JPY: I’m bearish and short whilst this cross stays below 131.25.

 

  1. >I’m still of the same view, the EUR has done a lot of its work already

    Would your view change if the time frame turns to the next couple of weeks?

    ■ Tapering is still coming, but Feds seem to think market’s overreacted over the past 4 weeks.
    ■ Last night showed Fed policy largely unchanged but emphasising more dovish stance.
    ■ Mkt reacted by taking profits, which I guess is exactly what the Feds wanted – financial stability rather than a one-way bet on the USD into September.

    Still, I’m starting to think this latest correction (however long it lasts) is not an excuse to sell USD wholesale. There will be a point where the exuberance will turn to caution when we move towards Sept…the market will continue to be sensitive to US data.

    For now I’m guessing the best short term strategy is to go with the momentum, and come back to the Taper trade when momo fades in a couple weeks?

    Thoughts?

  2. Not really sure about big picture Chngster, think there will be great swing trade opps in short term. I guess at heart I’m a USD bear so I always expect rallies to run out of puff quite quickly

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