JPY crosses

JPY crosses looking a bit fatigued

There is no doubt that the market is already significantly long of the JPY crosses but there is also no doubt that the Yen bearishness of recent weeks is as strong as ever. Macro funds are reportedly on the bid in USD/JPY near 81.50 as they look to add to their long positions and whilst we have seen somewhat of a turnaround today in EUR/JPY, its probably premature to start calling an end to the trend. The up-trend got a push forward on Friday in thin markets and Asia has simply undone that part of the move, as it so often does. Now if both Europe and the US have down sessions in the Yen crosses, then that would be a different matter altogether…

  1. Morning Sean,

    It seem that the friday call for USD/JPY (sell at 82.50/60 , stop above 82.80) was a good idea, this overnight. Did you jump in ? If i understand your advices, it would be the time to buy back 😉

  2. No mate way too short term for me, still running small short positions in cable and aud/usd but without any strong conviction i’m afraid to say. Waiting and hoping for the lights to come on soon 🙂

  3. Good Morning every one,

    Sean Can you have look at the following chart.

    Its weekly JPY Index, from Mid 2003 till now. We have a very strong resistance / Trend line which has stood all tests since 07/2009 ( Six Test). It holds or not this time, don’t know but Index appears to be bouncing at least.

    Along with, Its a perfect Pennant / Triangle which as per my understanding also suggest gains from here ???

    your opinions matters most!!!!!!

  4. Hi Asad, great chart, thanks for that, not something I look at very often.
    Yes it is a perfect looking formation BUT the pennant/flag is much too big compared with the ‘flagpole’ and I don’t like that. The flag is half as big as the pole. I’d be prepared to sell a bearish break I think as I don’t see the formation as being definitively continuation. Just my opinion and as with all technical analysis its very subjective

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