If the AUD can’t fall on bad economic data, then it must be going up

The interbank guru @FXWW303 has been selling the AUD today but I must say I disagree with him this time. The AUD rallied yesterday after poor domestic business data virtually ensured an August rate cut and it is back at opening levels again today despite more poor Chinese trade data. I think the AUD has fallen far enough, as we are currently seeing on the crosses against the EUR etc, and I expect to see some very nasty short-squeezes in coming sessions.

  1. That was a very nice call. I was identically positioned as FXWW303 and had to bail out, I was also short most major yen crosses so the damage was contained. I am a big advocate of trend trading and technically in the short term AUD made lower highs and lower lows so I was confident in my position despite knowing and being aware of the point you made which is that fundamentally speaking AUD was holding its ground despite the negative news out of China. But generally market action in my book overrides fundamentals or news/econ releases.

    Thus, bold call of yours but you were right in your call. Timely and well communicated. Kudos to you!!!

  2. Thanks Matt, but I’m only right once I’ve booked my profits 🙂 I’ve had many trades in the past which looked oh-so-good and then turned sour so I’m not counting any chickens just yet.
    I’ve just had a long hard look at EUR/JPY and I do agree with you there, it could turn down sharply at any time.

  3. I stopped long time ago to worry about taking profits and expected pnl. I try to manage my risk and that takes care of the rest. I am not sure about how to position in AUD in the days ahead as I am not sure how long-lived that short covering/selling in EUR/AUD will be. But luckily I can say I am in the business of reacting not predicting. The long positioning in yen today was lucky in terms of the timing. But it does not to sometimes have luck on one’s side, does it. I like your calls, and I like you defend your calls with logical rational, sometimes they turn out wrong, more often right. But you have skin in the game (so I assume) which puts you miles higher up in my book than most any bank analyst. Thanks for sharing your thoughts here.

  4. I agree with you Matt. I really appreciate you, Sean, because you’re a TRADER…not an analyst who doesn’t back up his calls by putting real hard cash on the line. Right or wrong, you lay it on the a public setting…..and that I greatly respect.

    Keep up the great work. This site, and your analysis, is awesome!

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