GBP crosses/Others/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas

GBP/CHF: Could rise 30 big figures without endangering bear trend

For many years GBP/CHF oscillated fairly steadily around 2.50, give or take 20 big figures, and then came the big sell-off as investment managers eschewed all things UK and piled into all things Swiss. I’m not going to argue about the merits of theses strategies, but what I will say is that GBP/CHF could easily rise to 1.80 without endangering the downtrend.

Risk-reward must surely favour longs in the current environment (talking my position as usual).

  1. Yes I would Matt, obviously getting the timing right is very important but I do think that sometime quite soon we will witness a major GBP short-covering rally. EUR/GBP has been fairly slow and I haven’t followed the exact levels but yes would definitely prefer to sell rallies

  2. Hi Sean,

    For we “Johnny come latelies” on USD/CHF, what sort of initial entry levels do you feel would be OK if it does dip back down again? I’m tossing up between USD/CHF and GBP/CHF.

  3. Hi Peter, here is what I think is going to happen; I think USD/CHF will trade roughly 94/108ish for rest of year so its reasonably ‘cheap’ near current levels. I think cable will trade 148/162 ish. As an old cross trader, rather than buy GBP/CHF, I prefer to buy dips in both pairs and trade it that way. Impossible to say what definitive levels will be.

  4. Sean, I got an impression that you are becoming GBP mega bull)))) and it is across the board… I am still waiting for some good selloff to jump on that train, hope it will happen sooner than later, cheers.

  5. I think you are right Kirill, and that from someone who made an entire career out of selling sterling 🙂 I get the feeling that the market is very bearish, and very short in structural and speculative sense. All that adds up to dangerous mix. You getting any insights from your specialist field??

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