This pair has been stuck inside a relatively tight long-term range between 1.46/1.61 and this is really symptomatic of the market as a whole; we’ve gone from extreme volatility to virtually none. From a purely technical perspective, the current consolidation looks like a pennant and these would normally break lower eventually in line with the dominant bear trend. But, trying to trade this pair from current levels right in the middle of its range is extremely tricky indeed. You could be lucky and pick the next 500 pip move but unless something changes fundamentally in the near future, I’d stick with the big range and wait for a break before committing to bigger moves.
