FX market still in stop-loss mode: Positioning light ahead of election results
My main feeling at the moment is that the market is still in stop-loss hunting mode. Yesterday we saw USD/JPY orders below 80.00 targeted and eventually triggered. This is what drove the market and the rubbish rumours about big flows turned out to be just that. EUR/USD eventually found a base near Sovereign bids at 1.2765 and started triggering trailing stops back above 1.2810. The AUD seems to be the one currency driven by solid sentiment and flows, with reserve managers piloting it higher.
The US election results should start flowing in around 02:00 GMT but its unlikely that we see any big moves until after the result is officially announced. Prime brokers report that positioning is now very light amongst the shorter-term players so I do not expect to see any major volatility during this session.