AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/GBP crosses/Others/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

FX market still in cross-movement phase

I’m still of the opinion that we are in a cross-movement phase of the FX market with the AUD looking like the main loser and the EUR likely to emerge as the main winner. It’s not that the EZ suddenly has outstanding prospects or anything, more that the market is structurally short and most of the big banks report a net-net demand for the EUR from its customer base on a month-to-month basis.

EUR/AUD is headed to 1.38 and possibly higher; whether this means that the EUR/USD is at 1.38 and AUD/USD at 1.00? Or whether the EUR/USD is at 1.27 and AUD/USD at 0.92? That remains to be seen but its probably a mix of both.

USD/JPY is in a consolidation phase of a strong up-trend, USD/CHF is overall bullish but has lost momentum in the short-term and is retracing, and the GBP doesn’t seem to have any momentum of its own and relies on the other majors for leads.

  1. Howya Seรกn,
    Any opinion/insight to NZD/USD?
    Getting ready to go through 0.8000 or is this possibly a bottom? I like the idea of going short but am finding it hard to find any reputable non bank bullsh*t info about the pair!

  2. Hi Tommy. I’m tending to think we might be getting close to a short-term base? AUD/NZD still looks heavy but AUD/USD starting to form base which implies NZD/USD higher. USD starting to smell a bit; cable and EUR/USD look bullish and USD/CHF up-trend has broken.
    I prefer long this pair but wud like to buy near 8025ish with stops below 7950

  3. morning Sean. Cable is worth a long given the double bottom and also current USD weakness. A dip would be an opportunity imho.
    Still love to go long for EUR/CHF at this level.

  4. Definitely agree on both counts Danny. I’ve been without a position for almost 24 hours, withdrawal symptoms setting in ๐Ÿ™‚ I’m being tempted ๐Ÿ™

  5. lol, it makes you feel naked.
    If cable dips to 1.5200 i will initiate a long. Not sure if i can see it going lower and it is difficult to catch you know.will take the risk and suffer the loses while wait for it to climb.
    1 more thing, its almost weekend (some risks)

  6. Steven, the first ever physical connection between the US and the UK was a cable laid in the 1930’s between NY and London to allow banks to determine the correct exchange rate. Hence the GBP/USD is known as ‘cable’.

  7. I’d be careful there Papillon; remember that we have come from 76 last October so its up almost 30%! The market is thinking that 100 is a buy-dip opportunity, I doubt it somehow. I think China has exactly the right idea with the 97/104 dnt

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