FX market moving into classic cross-movement phase
I believe that pairs like EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and the like are set for major moves higher. Have a look at a weekly EUR/AUD chart for instance and you will see a possible basing pattern and the fact that this pair could rise by 20% and still not endanger that down-trend. This is not about being particularly bullish EUR or bearish AUD, simply that the market is mis-priced in my opinion.
The EUR/USD will consolidate inside of a set range and it may well be that Sovereign bids near 1.3000 are forming an initial base. The top is likely to be somewhere around 1.35/1.37 as we should not forget that market sentiment towards the USD is also improving off very low levels.
When the EUR/USD gets towards the upper-end of its range, be it the short-term or long-term variety, then that’s the time to sell AUD/USD. Similarly, when the AUD/USD gets to a stage (like in last few days) when it’s nearing important support, that is then the time to buy the EUR/USD.
The exact same rules apply to other crosses like GBP/NZD. I’m pretty sure that this is now the type of market we are dealing with.