AUD,NZD/EUR crosses/EUR/USD/GBP crosses/Trade Ideas

FX market moving into classic cross-movement phase

I believe that pairs like EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and the like are set for major moves higher. Have a look at a weekly EUR/AUD chart for instance and you will see a possible basing pattern and the fact that this pair could rise by 20% and still not endanger that down-trend. This is not about being particularly bullish EUR or bearish AUD, simply that the market is mis-priced in my opinion.

The EUR/USD will consolidate inside of a set range and it may well be that Sovereign bids near 1.3000 are forming an initial base. The top is likely to be somewhere around 1.35/1.37 as we should not forget that market sentiment towards the USD is also improving off very low levels.

When the EUR/USD gets towards the upper-end of its range, be it the short-term or long-term variety, then that’s the time to sell AUD/USD. Similarly, when the AUD/USD gets to a stage (like in last few days) when it’s nearing important support, that is then the time to buy the EUR/USD.

The exact same rules apply to other crosses like GBP/NZD. I’m pretty sure that this is now the type of market we are dealing with.

  1. Sean,

    Been awhile since i have been on your site. Whats your take on AUD/JPY. It has retraced its pop from the NFP report last friday. makes me wonder if we have a double top at 105.

  2. Hi Sean, how’ve you been? I think that 105 level you mention will be tough to crack and that any dips will be contained above 95.00 roughly, so I would stay real patient and wait for extremes of the ranges

  3. been trying to scalp it and have taken a little bit of a beating. I have been doing good just working like a crazy man seeing it’s spring here in the US and retail is picking up.

  4. I think GBP/NZD is the best long… Mostly because I have no desire to be long of it, and that is the best contrarian argument in the universe. I think on the next dip I will force myself into long there. Cheers…

  5. Great pick-up on the AUD/NZD Kirill, I love your way of thinking. I think it was Tudor-Jones who said that he took his biggest positions when he suddenly realised that he was wrong, ie went from bearish to bullish in an instant. I think he reckoned that most of the mkt would suddenly realise the same thing as well so best he switch quickly. Wise trader.

  6. Hi Sean! NZD just got a lift from good job data. Curious to see if AUD will do the same later today.

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