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7:10:45 pmEur Aud.PNG (27.5 kB)

7:12:29 pmWeeklies also pointing lower, but dont expect instant gratification on this..selling rallies with a SL above 1.4560 looks to be a plan though…

8:02:21 pmAsian offers in AUD/USD at 0.9450 and 0.9475

8:49:08 pmBoE LTRO headline is BS obviously

8:49:14 pmGS Our forward / money market desk pointing out that this is NOT new information.. and is part of their standard operations. Done every month, standard 3mths tenor.

8:53:06 pm(MS) Cable dropped 50 pts on this headline to a low of 1.6020. However, given this was a scheduled operation we are a little surprised by the mkt reaction hence don’t be surprised to see cable retrace this move in due course

9:22:32 pmSummary of GS Traders’ Strategies:
EUR: Staying very flexible within the range and in reactive mode. Support at 1.3520 and more broadly 1.3453 (August high) with resistance at 1.3620 ahead of the cycle high at 1.3648.
JPY: Currently flat USDJPY – we will however look to buy dips now towards 96.50, with a stop below the Aug lows of 95.80.
GBP: EURGBP continues to hold just below the 0.8480 level but we remain tactically short looking for 0.8380 region once more
AUD: Content to remain short while the levels hold (0.9530) but feel like a more developed move lower will need a fresh catalyst. 0.9460 the immediate resistance above followed by 0.9530, below looking at support zone from end of last week of 0.9360/80.
CHF: Swiss crosses are trading independently of the data with the other side of the equations driving price action for now.

9:23:04 pmLeveraged names selling AUD fading this move

9:28:15 pm—————–

9:28:16 pmGS G10 FX flows from Trading – a flurry of activity initially triggered by the misreported headline over the BOE LTRO (always part of their standard operations), taking cable down to 1.6019 but quickly back up above 1.6070.Aud then takes out last weeks highs triggered a wave of model and leveraged stops / short covering (we have been net buyers of 250 ish in last 10 mins ) with further stops above 0.9500 although we continue to hold shorts – we look to re-assess above 0.9520 now.

BAML: seeing longer term names lookign to enter shorts between here and .9500

5:54:23 amgood day people

6:16:09 amGday mate…. not much to go on after the brief spikes up/down….looks like being another tedious session ..in Asia anyway..

6:21:35 amHey Jim- yes very tedious.. not much point getting too involved here.. just a matter of waiting for some resolution of this fiasco one way or the other

6:23:24 amYep indeed mate, what a debacle!  and you are right, I can t see too much point in being involved at all in FX land, although I think the S+P and Dow are picking up steam for potentially soemthing quite substantial on the downside…

6:24:26 amWhich I assume, if that is correct, then it might be the catalyst for the move south in Usd/Jpy that the market is hoping for…..

6:32:19 amyes that looks to be the way of it

6:35:02 ammeantime feels like the world has put on long vol strategies to capture big directional move in usd one way or the other and are bleeding here- trying to job what ever movement there is to recoup some premium..hence why we’re trapped

6:39:21 amYep that could be the way of it….and it looks to me asthough the bleeding is going to continue….the charts are hopeless at present…against the dollar at least …some of the crosses are more interesting though….I still like the look of the Aud on the crosses, although a bit clueless on everything else, although the EurJpy looks heavy still

6:48:28 amyup agreed

7:41:39 amhttp://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/

7:48:48 amQuiet a bit of movement in pairs like GBP/AUD yesterday; looks like traders are looking to non-USD pairs for some trading opportunities

8:03:44 amBofAML intro: ” Washington worries are manifesting in different ways. The Nov 7 US Treasury Bill traded up to 35 basis points (from close to zero last week), though corrected to 26bp after good indirect bidders at the auction. Our equity team saw material demand for Japan equity puts. However, they also saw demand for S&P500 equity calls and VIX Puts. Private Clients continue to be the stalwart of the US equity market and our data shows private clients have now been net buyers for 18 of the last 19 weeks, and have purchased a cumulative $13bn of US stocks YTD. FX has been more sidelined, though in Liquid Insight, Ian Gordon makes the case to stay short the USD in the near-term, particularly against the yen and short CAD against non-USD G10 currencies. Continuing with the bearish USD theme, FX Quant Trader continues to signal a stronger USD via several signals. In Canada we also revised our interest rate forecast, now looking for the Bank of Canada not to hike until 1H2016 due to limited growth.

8:17:44 amKeep an eye on the S+P guys. It has broken some decent support today and looks very heavy. It has dragged the Nikkei futures down by about 140 points, which in turn is breaking some important support areas and could be what helps send US$/Jpy down towards the 95.80 initial target if we can get under the 200DMA…I ll attach a S+P Chart…tic…

8:18:06 amS+P daily.PNG (29.0 kB)

8:18:46 amThat is a daily chart

9:01:22 am[Screenshot0] | [DesktopObject0] NZD/USD few spreads lower after retail sales data

9:51:12 amWHITE HOUSE MAY ANNOUNCE YELLEN AS FED CHAIR AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY

10:27:19 amJanet Yellen record gives pointer to Fed policy if Obama picks her as chair: FT 29 Sept:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rphu31

10:33:39 amfair to say this is a fairly muted reaction in the USD

10:40:33 amNAB:
AUD order book sees continued Corp supply 9480-9600 with a cluster of resting now around 9500, not one topside SL as specs continue to abandon risk, downside a few s/term SL 9380-9410 with Corp demand now centred around 9280-9330

10:44:23 amDB Spot Trading Morning Report:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rphugv

10:53:26 amBoJ MP meeting mins http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/minu_2013/g130905.pdf

11:47:16 amThis came out a little while ago – but seems to be being passed around interbank at moment…
http://www.pimco.com.sg/EN/Insights/Pages/Taper-Time-Mining-That-Is.aspx

11:56:41 amAs one HF sales desk suggests…’Once summers was out of the picture for fed, the usd had a decent selloff – which pretty much was market repricing for yellen’ – their explanation for the lack of response to the yellen news

11:58:42 amCouple of banks telling me they’re seeing growing interest to buy AUDNZD this morn

12:02:05 pmTxs 888, you getting any sense of where big positions might be in HF land?

12:05:04 pmmy sense is they’re pretty short USDs

12:06:40 pminteresting, might be some hefty cable longs out there then??

12:06:48 pmim the other way – so might just be me talking my book tho 🙂

12:07:18 pma trader talking his book?? never

12:07:35 pmha happens every now n then

12:08:51 pmGBP not so sure, but i’d imagine so.. reasonably comfortable with their longs but looking to lighten on a 162 handle

12:11:51 pmI don’t have cable exposure… just short eurgbp after blip up the other day – but will mostl likely cover circa 8400-10

12:13:05 pmisnt really the kind of market to go looking for big moves

12:18:57 pmSMBQ DEUQ and TMSQ seen buying usdjpy above 97.20

12:21:46 pmThats Sumi Tokyo, Deutsche Tokyo and Tokyo-Mitsubishi Tokyo- for those unfamiliar with reuters codes

12:29:09 pmBoA: FOMC – 3 Scenarios:Our US strategists highlight that within the FOMC Minutes today, the crucial questions will be which factors were the most important to cause the delay in the onset of tapering in September;
A) If the effect of rising yields on mortgages was paramount, then we could expect a longer delay in initiating tapering, until the broader economy lends greater support to the housing market.
B) If the reason was primarily the weakness in the latest payroll number, then the market would respond by being more volatile around the important data releases.
C) Finally, if the fiscal conflict was the primary reason, it would be reasonable to assume that tapering would occur soon, given the central expectation that the shutdown and debt limit will be resolved by mid-month.
Another crucial question that would be answered in the SEP section would be the narrative on how long QE would be expected to last.

12:33:11 pmJP Morgan: Asia Pac Morning Commentary:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rpi296

12:36:58 pmMizuho
– light stops 97.30, heavier stops 40-60
-downside light bids 96.80-65, stops below 96.60

12:38:09 pmBank of Tokyo:
Our order book topside SL and offer mixed from 97-low to 98-low level and well offered around 98-mid level. Downside also SL and bid mixed from 96-high to 96-mid level and new bid orders came in 96-low to 95-high levelDaily ichimoku cloud is 98.109-98.675 and tankan line stay 97.798 today. Top of monthly ichimoku cloud is 100.041 this month. This top of monthly ichimoku has been working well as a resistance these 5 or 6 month..

12:52:09 pmUSDCHF up thru 82 cd be interesting

12:52:47 pm9082 obv