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“”EurAud is worth keeping an eye on folks (1.4365)…currently not having a problem holding on to 1.43, but if 1.4280 (100 DMA) area gives way we should see an acceleration towards Fibo support at 1.4225 and below that, if it were to come about, it could get a little ugly . I ll attach a chart
EUR: Staying very flexible within the range and in reactive mode. Support at 1.3520 and more broadly 1.3453 (August high) with resistance at 1.3620 ahead of the cycle high at 1.3648.
JPY: Currently flat USDJPY – we will however look to buy dips now towards 96.50, with a stop below the Aug lows of 95.80.
GBP: EURGBP continues to hold just below the 0.8480 level but we remain tactically short looking for 0.8380 region once more
AUD: Content to remain short while the levels hold (0.9530) but feel like a more developed move lower will need a fresh catalyst. 0.9460 the immediate resistance above followed by 0.9530, below looking at support zone from end of last week of 0.9360/80.
CHF: Swiss crosses are trading independently of the data with the other side of the equations driving price action for now.
BAML: seeing longer term names lookign to enter shorts between here and .9500
AUD order book sees continued Corp supply 9480-9600 with a cluster of resting now around 9500, not one topside SL as specs continue to abandon risk, downside a few s/term SL 9380-9410 with Corp demand now centred around 9280-9330
A) If the effect of rising yields on mortgages was paramount, then we could expect a longer delay in initiating tapering, until the broader economy lends greater support to the housing market.
B) If the reason was primarily the weakness in the latest payroll number, then the market would respond by being more volatile around the important data releases.
C) Finally, if the fiscal conflict was the primary reason, it would be reasonable to assume that tapering would occur soon, given the central expectation that the shutdown and debt limit will be resolved by mid-month.
Another crucial question that would be answered in the SEP section would be the narrative on how long QE would be expected to last.
– light stops 97.30, heavier stops 40-60
-downside light bids 96.80-65, stops below 96.60
Our order book topside SL and offer mixed from 97-low to 98-low level and well offered around 98-mid level. Downside also SL and bid mixed from 96-high to 96-mid level and new bid orders came in 96-low to 95-high levelDaily ichimoku cloud is 98.109-98.675 and tankan line stay 97.798 today. Top of monthly ichimoku cloud is 100.041 this month. This top of monthly ichimoku has been working well as a resistance these 5 or 6 month..