JPY crosses

Focus stays on USD for now but Yen crosses look bit wobbly

Yesterday I heard that one big professional trader was booking profits from his long GBP/JPY trade and this has got me thinking. Perhaps we’ve taken for granted that the Yen will stay weak for a long time but we shouldn’t forget that there are big speculative positions in the market, all pointing the same way. If EUR/JPY were to break below 129.00 and AUD/JPY were to break below 95.00, the whole complexion of the market would change.
Definitely worth keeping in mind.

  1. Hi Sean,
    What are you thinking for Aussie dollar going into NFP. I know we are range trading currently to the lower level. Do you expect a bounce from here. I would like to get short around 0.97 .What are you expecting for NFP . Thanks

  2. Hi Sean, do u still think CHF will follow eventually yen strength? Do u think is a good ideea to take a short CHF, let’s say via EUR? Many thanks

  3. It seems USD remains stronger against major currencies. Long-term currency bands (5 years) indicate that AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD to move to downward direction. I prefer to stay short positions for those pairs. By opposite, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF to upward direction and I look to long position.

    Medium to short-term time series currency band however at slightly mixed with price elasticity highly volatile And, I look for weekly holding positions by using 1H and 2H time series and to ignore the quarterly based series.

    Can you guide me which one more consistent to follow?.

  4. Hi,

    I am holding short position for EUR/CAD from the level of 1.3450-1.3550 to target 1.2200-1.2000, the estimated quarterly to semi-annually exchange rate target zone of the band.

    Is it make sense from your analytical point of view?.

  5. Hi,

    For EUR/CAD I use W,D,8H,4H a combination of time series band model.

    The EUR/CAD is proposed to hold for 3-4 months, but will be closed at any beneficial position (4H/8H,D).

    For short-term, I use the combination of W,D and 2H and 1H.

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