Few comments re market positioning
The professional market and the retail market act in different ways. If you read that the retail market is heavily short (say 70% of accounts are short) then they are likely to have fairly tight trailing stops which usually means that the market will soon start to move against them. The professional market (and I exclude CTAs here) are generally much more patient and tend to build positions over time. So if the professional market is only slightly long AUD for instance, it could mean that they are at the beginning of a position-building phase which should be bullish AUD in the medium term. There are of course occasions like last week in USD/JPY when the professional market got itself overly long and then we saw a bit of a wipe-out.