EUR/USD weekly preview, October 14th: Range trade with bullish bias
There is a very clear range-trading pattern in EUR/USD at the moment, with highs between 1.3050/80 and a base near the 200-day MA at 1.2825. Speculative EUR shorts increased by around 40% in the week to October 9th yet this had no major impact on the level of the EUR. Big reserve and asset managers have been playing the range as well, adding plenty of liquidity near the top and bottom. Asian central banks were noted buyers on Friday near 1.2920 and US corporates were noted sellers at 1.2980. Market sentiment remains very bearish towards the EUR but if the range-trading mode continues, the odds increase that a bullish break eventuates on the back of short-covering. [Some pairs like EUR/CAD are showing excessive short positioning and could also be well worth a look]. On the data front, US retail sales and the Empire Fed survey on Monday are the first risk events for EUR/USD with the German ZEW survey released on Tuesday; US industrial production and Philly Fed come later in the week.