EUR/USD/FXWW News/Trade Ideas

EUR/USD: Weekly preview July 7th

  • This pair has been in range trading mode for an extended period and is currently sitting right on weekly trendline support (see chart). 
  • The market has turned irrationally bullish on the USD and with EUR/USD positioning at relatively low levels, there is still scope for further falls.
  • July and August are the main holiday months in Europe and North America and we seldom see any big trends beginning at this time of the year.

The market wants to buy the USD and we must respect this sentiment but I don’t like the risk-reward in selling near 1.2800. Look to the EUR crosses for better trading opportunities.

  1. Moderately bullish for week ahead, but there are risk events early in week with EU meeting, Draghi speech and UK trade data. I’d guess a 8560/8690 type range for the week

  2. http://onehourworkweek.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/eurusdweekly.jpg

    When I posted this chart on my blog in June, I thought we are going to have a snap-back rally to the upper trendline of the triangle. Instead we just broke out of it last week. But I would be very surprised if we went straight for the projected target of the triangle break. (though I have been surprised before hehe)

    Maybe we’ll just make the triangle wider first to trap the bears. You’re right, the crosses might be a better bet. Correlations are out of whack completely. The equity market needs to decide if it likes stocks because of the expected “tapering” or not.

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