EUR crosses/Flows and Orders

EUR/USD: Weak trailing stops triggered below 1.2850

EUR/USD is back below 1.2850 in the aftermath of the S&P downgrade of Spain. Dealers report trailing stops below 1.2850 have been targeted and triggered.

The downgrade needn’t necessarily be bearish for the EUR; Spanish bonds are still investment grade and this S&P move might encourage Spain to ask for the bail-out.

I’d play a 1.2830/80 range intraday with a mild bullish bias whilst the 200-day MA still supports.

  1. sean, spain has regional elections in galicia the 21st, a stronghold for partido popular – spanish ruling party – and they are unlike to sacrifice askign for an ‘unpopular’ bailout before that date-… there is still minimum 7/8 trading days till then… room for euro downside range break? risk certainly increasing… On the flip side, 18th this month they might be forced to ask at the EU summit but with german reluctant… i doubt… not an easy puzzle to put together… is it? 😉

  2. Thanks Ivan, excellent points re election and bailout. I agree it’s starting to feel a bit heavy but I’m not sure we will get a big break anytime soon- too many big bids 12800 and below. I still favour range trading for next few months but gun to my head, I’d rather be short than long at the moment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *