EUR/USD/Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Technicals: 1.3080 pivotal for next directional move

The weekly chart is in a slow downtrend oscillating either side of the 100-week MA line. The daily chart has now formed a base and looks to have scope to retrace back towards 1.3500. There is a double-top on the short-term charts with a neckline at 1.3080 and this level becomes pivotal for the next directional move.

If we enter a full-on risk-off environment then the EUR is likely to outpace most other currencies, perhaps even the USD, as the market reverses out of its current short positioning. The lack of any catastrophic news re the EZ debt crisis is also fuelling the short-covering.

Range-trading is the most likely outcome here with important parameters at 1.2740/1.3500.

  1. Good morning/afternoon Sean,

    I think you meant “if we enter full-on risk-ON…”.

    The EURUSD went to the upside after the release of the NFP numbers on Friday as I was expecting (made some pips :-)).
    However, due to the WE, and also due to the divisions regarding the numbers (115k is pretty weak) the market starts reversing at .307.

    For me the fact that we closed the week below 1.303 and 1.305 indicates that the market is reading the NFP with a slight bearish bias. However, we still closed above 1.30. So I am tempted to say that we are bearish for the coming week, but not totally convinced. As I have shown on my graph, it looks like the market has finished a second wave in the correction (wave B) and now we are in the wave C. Last week I mentionned that the market was possibly starting the new leg up. And even earlier, I mentionned that we won’t make new highs until the spanish request a bail out. Well I think I was wrong about a new leg up, and correct about the postulat that no new high will be made in EURUSD until the spanish request a bailout.

    The market is currently testing the trendline resistance from the bottom at 1.2815 (not shown on my picture). For me a pivot point will be 1.2950 on the downside and 1.303 on the upside.
    If we go down as I expect, I will closely watch also when the price meets the 100 hour MA (around 1.296) and the 150MA on 4H (~1.290), before we meet again with the daily 200MA.

    I think today we will see 1.2950 but not lower imho. The outcome of the european finance ministers might bring us back above 1.300. So it is a day for trading resistances not following the trend I would say.

    http://imageshack.us/a/img15/4120/eurusdb.gif

  2. Morning Iridium. No, full risk-off is what I meant; think back to GFC when risk went into meltdown yet the EUR rallied. So in very extreme risk off, the EUR will rise.
    Thanks for analysis, makes lots of sense.

  3. I think I understand now what you meant.
    You consider that the market has not benefit to short the euro anymore whereas many other currencies have a lot of downside potential such as AUD or NZD. Therefore a risk-off might see EUR outperform on a relative basis. But it is very hard for me to perceive that the euro would outperform the USD in a full risk off environment…

  4. Agree Iridium, but the EUR fall would be lot less than GBP, AUD etc and prob stay pretty steady vs USD over time, ie down first then recover. But that’s just total worthless conjecture on my part 🙂

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