EUR/USD/Flows and Orders/FXWW News/Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: Supported by Sovereign bids and a weekly trend-line

  • Sentiment is bearish and positioning is headed that way with all of the major banks seeming to turn bearish at same time.
  • Sovereign bids now reported 1.2970/80.
  • Weekly trend line comes in near 1.2925 (see chart).
  1. Hi Sean,

    EURUSD is my next target to long the EURUSD near the lowest quarterly band (1.2800-1.3000) with stop loss below the band 1.2750.

    The global macro trend for EURUSD is to upward direction driven by the longer and larger capital inflow into the European economic block from the proceeds of the liquidation from Asian economic block.

    Long on EURUSD will be executed after USDJPY to break the level of 103.00 and up and to protect the USDJPY trade at risk free position (except the trade to be closed for multiple entries and exits) to manage the level of assumed risk for the portfolio.

    Any idea on the entry rate level ?.

  2. Seems to me Johanes that you wish to build a macro EUR/JPY strategy. Obviously you can do this through the indiv legs (my preference) or straight through the cross. I wouldn’t do both, takes too much resources and concentration.

  3. Hi Sean,

    I see.

    The model I practiced to determine the turning points is by using currency band and currency band’s correlation.

    For example, my long position on EURJPY was under pressure for over 500 PIPs but it is recovered now and turned into floating profit.

    I have decided to stay with global macro trend. I have been tired with high frequency trading with profit and lost and at the end to be the looser. With global macro trend, I can leave my trading for weeks, months and quarter with lesser pressure on my head.

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