EUR/USD: Still the trade most likely to stuff the most people
As we know, the FX market will usually go where it can cause the most people the most pain. To me, that would mean EUR/USD back at 1.3700. I just mentioned that level to someone and he laughed but it’s really not that silly at all.
Can you imagine AUD/USD back at 1.00 and EUR/AUD at 1.3700? Can you imagine EUR/CHF at 1.26 and USD/CHF at .92? In those terms it doesn’t seem outrageous at all, just normal market noise really.
We seem to be entering a phase of USD weakness so keep your minds open to all possibilities.
Agree Sean, even though I am positioned for the downside. Retail is building up the short positions which is making me nervous.
Couldnt agree with you more – the price action on EUR says it all..
Goldman has been beating the drums about 1.37 for a while..not sure about the basis though. It could be short hunting
We could definitely see this in the medium term
Indeed Sean. The market may be too long USD and needs some flushing. We need to keep our minds open for all possibilities.
That’s also true Nigel, but there will always be dips of course especially in EUR as everyone is nervous about being long. Maybe best to play it without a position, using swings to get in and out for quick 80/100 pips