EUR/USD: Risk-reward would seem to favour the (brave) bulls
I’m in a huge minority in the FX market in that I very seldom trade EUR/USD. I much prefer to trade the crosses and only really look at EUR/USD trade ideas if they are very clear-cut. I don’t see anything clear-cut about EUR/USD at the moment and I still think it’s in one big sideways range trade. I don’t see it near 1.15 anytime soon nor do I see it near 1.40 either. In my view, its fairly cheap near 1.25/1.27 and its expensive near 1.35/1.37.
The crosses at the moment are quite well supported; EUR/CHF has been on a bit of a bull move in recent sessions, EUR/GBP continually frustrates the bears, and even EUR/JPY has been quite resilient near 130. If the EUR/USD were about to crash then the crosses would be very heavy also IMHO.
There is strong technical support in EUR/USD near 1.2750 and if this holds through the FOMC, watch out then for a sharp rally back to mid-range levels near 1.31.