EUR crosses/EUR/USD/Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: Outlook for the week ahead

     The EUR crosses remain quite heavy overall, with EUR/JPY definitely turning bearish and EUR/GBP also losing its bullish momentum, and this sentiment is making it hard for the EUR/USD to make any significant bounces. More losses look possible from a technical perspective, but remember that this pair has been entrenched in range-trading mode so the market is lacking confidence and therefore we will see nasty dips and spikes against the short-term trend. Overall, I prefer the sell-rally strategy here but we could be trading 1.24/1.30 for the rest of the year.

The German ZEW survey and industrial production data, as well as EU CPI and the FinMin meeting will be the main risk events during European trading sessions.

  1. I agree with you Sean.
    We could expect a lot of bounce back in the coming weeks even if the medium term trend is heavily bearish.
    I will sell the pull back between 2750 and 2870 (if it comes to there).

  2. Hi Raheem, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF are where the big positions are but EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK as well as EUR/RUB and other Eastern Europeans are also very heavily traded. Then EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD are also hedge fund favourites

  3. A lot depends upon your time horizon. The next 2-3 sessions could well see a bounce up 30-40 pips, but if you’re looking at the daily chart it is still a bear market until we break and close above 102 in EJ.

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