EUR/USD/Flows and Orders/GBP crosses

EUR/USD: More stops triggered above 1.3100

Looks indeed like it was a barrier at 1.3100 and stops have been triggered (including mine) taking us to a high of 1.3125 thus far. Cable is still stalling near reported heavy offers at 1.6130.

  1. I will give it one more day. Feel like going short but the long momentum seems to be strong. A retest of 1.3180 is on the cards.

  2. Good morning Sean and all,
    My analysis yesterday described exactly what happened (http://fxww.dreamhosters.com/?p=1505). I did not make much money out it though which proves I am a better analyst than trader so far…

    Regarding today, my recommendations:

    -Buy EURUSD on pull backs from 1.3050 down to 1.30 with SL below 1.2990 and targets 1.310, 1.317, 1,3240.
    -Short EURUSD on strong rally from 1.3170 up to 1.3240 with SL above 1.3250 and targets 1.3150, 1.310.
    – Risky: Short EURUSD at 1.309x with SL above 1.31 and target 1.3050.

    As I was suspecting, the market was ready to price a little more of a spanish bailout and will now tend to gravitate around the level of 1.3170 until either some disappointment arrives or finally the request is made. It is clear that the spanish official briefing that was published in the FT and that spurred the rally is calculated for the bond auction of tomorrow to be successfull. The yields on spanish bonds remain very much range bound and indicate that the bond market has not given yet his final statement. The EURUSD is now overbought on the 4H timeframe, and correction should occur. A move down to 1.3050 and below will offer a nice buying opportunity. Longer term, it seems the market is in the midst of forming a double top on a daily basis. Today, there are no specific moving averages or fibonacci levels in play and the bias this morning is “bullish retracement”.
    Good luck!

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