EUR crosses/EUR/USD/Flows and Orders/FXWW News/Trade Ideas

EUR/USD: Main risk still to the topside

I think you just have to read the comments on this or other sites to realise that the overwhelming sentiment in the market is bearish on EUR/USD! Most traders are looking to sell rallies for the ‘inevitable’ fall to 1.20 but the claims of the Euro’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Structural flows remain primarily EUR positive according to the major banks and the speculators will only get bearish again if more bad news starts breaking inside the EZ. For now, I’d look to buy dips back towards 1.3350 looking for 1.3525/50 especially whilst the repatriation flows out of the EMs continue.

  1. Can’t argue with the price action. I had been short EUR/JPY trying to catch a 1/3 retracement of the big Abenomics rally, but had to give up for the time being. When the retracement does start it should be good for 10 big figures at least I reckon, but it seems that now is not the time.

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